Wednesday, September 26, 2007

Iraq war and Scottish independence

Here's a piece with an interesting premise. Will the Iraq war lead to Scottish independence? Ben Crair at TNR makes a pretty persuasive case , with tongue hardly ever in cheek, for such a "butterfly effect." In May the pro-independence Scottish National Party, won control of the Scottish parliament. An essentially one-issue party, it promptly called for a referendum on Scottish indedpendnce from Great Britain. The party won, however, because during the election campaign it focused on its opposition to the Blair government and its war in Iraq, which is deeply unpopular throughout the UK, but probably especially so in Scotland. It's not certain that independence would win in a referendum, but it it's not beyond possibility. Maybe it would have happened anyway, maybe it won't ever happen. But the Iraq war does seem to have played a role in pushing the issue up on the agenda at least.

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