Whether it will fall or not I simply can't tell just yet. Gwynne Dyer, one of the sharper analysts around, notes that in a Shia country martyrdom is valued, and if the regime creates too many martyrs, that's when it will be in serious trouble. It's unclear yet whether just a few people have been killed in the protests or whether the number is approaching a dozen.
As I noted in this post over at the Register's Orange Juice blog, the MSM (at least broadcast) were mostly terrible in their coverage over the weekend. The regime in Iran, a country of reasonably serious interest to the U.S., is undergoing what may be an existential crisis and Carrie Prejean gets more airtime. The blogosphere (see links in the post) did a much better job, with special kudos to Andrew Sullivan.