Tuesday, February 09, 2010
Will it be Green Day or regime day?
Thursday, Feb. 11, is the 31st anniversary of the Islamic revolution in Iran and the regime plans extensive, massive staged demonstrations to celebrate. It is almost certain that the Green Movement that has bedeviled the regime ever since the (probably unnecessarily) stolen presidential election in June will stage demonstrations as well. As Abbas Milani, director of Iranian studies at Stanford, notes in this piece, it is a delicate time for the regime. Despite efforts to suggest to the public that the Green Movement has become reconciled to the regime -- newspaper stories saying Mohammad Khatami accepts Ahmadinejad's legitimacy, as does Mehdi Karroubi. The government wants to convince the people that the movcement has petered out, but Milani makes a strong case that this isn't true. The allegedly conciliatory statements by Green activists were taken out of context. I expect massive peaceful demonstrations. We'll see if the government feels the need to repress them violently.