Monday, March 15, 2010

Dems in swing districts in serious trouble

Nationwide opposition to ObamaCare has been pretty steady at somewhere between 51 to 59% opposed since last July or August, though as shows, the gap has narrowed somewhat in recent weeks as Obama and the rest have put on their full court press. However, as I suggested in my Orange Punch post that RealClearPolitics picked up, the moderate to conservative Democrats in swing districts, especially those that went for Bush or Obama even as they elected pro-gun and/or anti-abortion Democrats, would likely face a different calculus than Dems from safe Democratic districts. For them, the argument that "if we don't get this passed people will see Democrats as failures and punish in November" resonates less than "you may be in trouble either way but if you vote for ObamaCare you're toast."

It turns out that Independent Women's Voice commissioned a poll in 35 swing districts and found even more dramatic results. 60% of those voters want Congress to start over from Square One on health care, 75% oppose an individual mandate, and strong majorities think it will make their immediate families, the economy, and the quality of health care worse. A daunting situation for congresscritters from those districts.

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