U.S. rejects North Korean peace treaty

One of the problems with international diplomacy is that pride and "face" sometimes get in the way of common sense. The U.S. has rejected a North Korean proposal to sign a peace treaty to end the Korean war that ended de facto 60 years ago, officially, arguing that it won't do that until the North gives up its nuclear program. Silly to make this a condition when the war is long over. Cghildish to worry that the North Koreans might get a dreaded propaganda talking point if it happens. Why not just do it? It won't change the character of the NK regime, and it probably won't get the six-party talks resumed. But what would be the harm?

Well, good for Bill

The news stories say Bill didn't do the negotiations himself, the State Dept. did, and the big thing Kim Jong-Il got was a chance to save face by releasing the two American women and having a former U.S. president come by on what was treated as a state visit. Victor Cha says NK's MO is to go out on a ledge and sometimes they have to be helped off it, Whatever, it's hard to be anything but pleased that the two are out of NK. As mentioned before, the hard labor camps are horrific. Word is that Kim didn't want the issue of the two captives to be a distraction in future negotiations over nukes. That assume negotiations are in the future.

I don't know why we don't just offer a non-aggression promise and restore normal diplomatic relations. NK, perhaps more so after Kim's death, is trying clumsi;y to get reconnected with the larger world. Give them diplomat9ic relations and nothing else -- espoecially not anguished attention to their every attention-getting action. It's a pipsqueak country and having nukes doesn't change that. Save the anguish for a real threat -- except that the U.S. doesn't really face one worth mobilizing about and is unlikely to, and political leaders thrive on the appearance oif threats.

Clinton might just do it

My guess is that Bill Clinton would not have gotten involved if he didn't have some assurances that there was at least a chance of being successful at bringing American quasi-journalists Laura Ling and Euna Lee home. I certainly hope he facilitates their freedom. It strikes me that this isn't a bad kind of thing for former presidents to do. They have a certain cachet, and being out of office they have a certain freedom of movement and action that serving presidents simply don't. That doesn't imply automatic applause for everything an ex might do -- Jimmy Carter has sometimes been an embarrassment, and it's hard to imagine Dubya being much of an international negotiator.

I hope the incident -- even though Bill will probably downplay it during active negotiations -- will bring more attention to North Korea's incredibly brutal hard-labor camps, described in this WaPo piece and to which Ling and Lee were sentenced. Not many people emerge alive from them.

Give North Korea the South Park treatment

The fuss-and-feathers over North Korea launching a failed missile test is fascinating but a little disconcerting. Our Big Thinkers keep trying to conjure existential threats from failed and failing pipsqueak regimes. I still think the provocative bits of bravado from the Hermit Kingdom are calls gfor attention whose ultimate purpose is to end the regime's isolation. So give them diplomatic recognition and a guarantee that the U.S. will never invade, which would be as loony a step as one can imagine, accompanied by a horselaugh at the regime's inability to feed itself, let alone build a workable missile. Maybe we could ask for a translation of the songs praising little KimJong Il from the phantom satellite. If it has to be accompanied by a stern lecture about not testing our patience with laughable attempts at modern weapons, so be it.

North Korea: best available option

The U.S. decided to take North Korea off its official list of "terrorism-sponsoring" countries as a way of defusing the situation and perhaps punting the problem to the next president. As this Register editorial explains, that delisting was the North's condition for disassembling (or perhaps pretending to disassemble) its nuclear weapons program. It would hardly do to trust Pyongyang, but at least the next president will be faced with a problem there, not a burgeoning crisis.

I still think that the Hermit Kingdom is trying to come out of its isolation and sees threats and nuclear programs as the only way to get U.S. attention. Anne Applebaum over at Slate sees things in a much less sanguinary light.

Kim Jong may be ill

I'm much more inclined to believe the South Korean intelligence services on conditions in North Korea, since they have an obvious direct interest and are pretty competent, especially when it comes to assessing their neighbor to the north. So it seems likely to me that North Korean dictator had a mild stroke in mid-August -- enough to keep him away from the 60th anniversary celebration, but apparently not life-threatening. In this Register editorial, we argue from circumstance rather than principle or deep preference, that we actually hope the SOB stays alive (much as kharma might suggest death immediately or sooner) a bit longer -- at least long enough to arrange a transition, if he's so inclined. Without a designated successor things are likely to be more chaotic than with one. Of course the military is likely to be the real ruler in a successor regime, but there are apparently factions within the military that could be sorted out with less danger of violence before Kin dies rather than afterward.

One cheer for North Korea deal

North Korea blew up the cooling tower at its Yongbyon nuclear facility over the weekend, which made for a fine visual. Unfortunately, the declaration of activity it presented last week was months late and incomplete. I'm not sure I disagree with Bush's decision to take North Korea off the officially political list of terrorism sponsoring states -- the list is pretty phony anyway. But we don't know whether the "hermit kingdom" has another nuclear facility hidden somewhere else, and we do know they've welched on every other recent nuclear agreement. On the other hand, there are pretty clear signs that the regimes wants to emerge at least somewhat from its international isolation, and this could be a step. Anyway, here's the Register's editorial on the event, which covers some other aspects as well.