. . . or writing, actually, before I was rudely interrupted by a computer (mine) going a little haywire (my tech savvy is such that my wife had to look it over and run the virus-catching program) last night, I put several items on the Register's Eye on on the Empire blog yesterday, about Gates declining to estimate closely how much the Iraq war might cost next year, the CIA admitting publicly that it waterboarded 3 al-Qaida detainees in 2002 and 2003 and more. Didn't have time to do it today because of Romney's CPAC speech withdrawing from the GOP presidential race, about which I had to write an editorial for tomorrow. Then one on waterboarding for Sunday. I like busy days, but there's so much out there that seems to invite comment just now and only so much time in a day.
Romney struck me as a businessman deciding to cut his losses. I'd be surprised if he doesn't have 2012 in mind, but I have no inside information. I was fascinated (though TV might not have given a fully accurate picture) at how this crowd of supposedly hard-core conservatives rolled over for McCain. My old colleague Harold Johnson used to say that Republicans love to "touch the purple." So if McCain is it, they'll prostrate themselves before power. Or even the prospect of power. It's not the monetary corruption that ruins a movement but the intellectual corruption. The leader-worship is almost Stalinesque.
Showing posts with label Mitt Romney. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Mitt Romney. Show all posts
Thursday, February 07, 2008
Wednesday, February 06, 2008
Blogging the election
I had the assignment last night of blogging the Super Tuesday election for the Register's Horserace'08 blog, which you can see here if you're interested in my thoughts at the time, as well as a few morning-after ruminations. Briefly, Huckabee surprised me, and he may have sunk Romney. I don't know what the Huckster is auditioning for, but I hope he gets it and it pays well and he is never tempted to run for president again. It's not quite a done deal, but McCain is looking pretty inevitable.
It's intriguing on the Democratic side. I think I agree with Howie Kurtz at the WaPo that the TV "analysts" were too fascinated with Barack to give Hillary her due, at least until she won California (she'll only get 20 or 30 more delegates than Barack but it was still an impressive win, and made fools of Zogby and some other polling organizations. On the Republican side, because the GOP awarded 3 delegates foir each congressional district won whereas the Dems split them proportionally, McCain is slated -- subject to revision as some absentee ballot were still being counted today -- to get all but 6 of the 159 delegates chosen through CDs.).
I haven't finished tabulating Ron Paul's numbers, but although I saw some high teens and I think even a 21% in one of the caucus states, and he now has 10 delegates, I thought they were disappointing. Perhaps it's inevitable as the media focus (understandably and justifiably at this stage) on the frontrunners, but I would love to see him start scoring at least in the 'teens regularly. Even though the pundits and pollsters say the war is a secondary issue with voters now, I'd like to see him focus more intently there; it's his unique selling proposition, as the marketers used to put it, and it's frustrating to see Republicans who say they're antiwar voting for McCain the uber hawk. It will be difficult, but if he scores respectably in primaries to come there's just an outside chance that a GOP I think is destined to lose big in November will take his positions into account as it struggles to rebuild.
It's intriguing on the Democratic side. I think I agree with Howie Kurtz at the WaPo that the TV "analysts" were too fascinated with Barack to give Hillary her due, at least until she won California (she'll only get 20 or 30 more delegates than Barack but it was still an impressive win, and made fools of Zogby and some other polling organizations. On the Republican side, because the GOP awarded 3 delegates foir each congressional district won whereas the Dems split them proportionally, McCain is slated -- subject to revision as some absentee ballot were still being counted today -- to get all but 6 of the 159 delegates chosen through CDs.).
I haven't finished tabulating Ron Paul's numbers, but although I saw some high teens and I think even a 21% in one of the caucus states, and he now has 10 delegates, I thought they were disappointing. Perhaps it's inevitable as the media focus (understandably and justifiably at this stage) on the frontrunners, but I would love to see him start scoring at least in the 'teens regularly. Even though the pundits and pollsters say the war is a secondary issue with voters now, I'd like to see him focus more intently there; it's his unique selling proposition, as the marketers used to put it, and it's frustrating to see Republicans who say they're antiwar voting for McCain the uber hawk. It will be difficult, but if he scores respectably in primaries to come there's just an outside chance that a GOP I think is destined to lose big in November will take his positions into account as it struggles to rebuild.
Friday, February 01, 2008
Romney Ed Board
Here's a link to the Register's editorial that came from the brief 20-minute conversation the Register editorial board had with Mitt Romney on Thursday. It's not as easy to judge somebody over the phone as it is face-to-face. When I did that much earlier this year with a question about Iraq based on what he thought was a misrepresentation of his position -- it was a disagreement about facts -- he got quite huffy. In the phone conversation he was gracious and responsive -- though we couldn't bait him into saying anything negative about John McCain's fabled temperament. He did have some other criticisms though.
If he didn't look so transparent in the desire to be all things to all people, or whatever he thinks it will take to get elected, or whatever, I might like him better. He is bright, he certainly has been successful in business and there's little doubt that he was the key to pulling off the Salt Lake Olympics after a scandal-ridden and disorganized beginning. And maybe he's been a conservative all along but ony played a liberal to get elected governor in Massachusetts. Or maybe he has few deep convictions. I just don't know.
If he didn't look so transparent in the desire to be all things to all people, or whatever he thinks it will take to get elected, or whatever, I might like him better. He is bright, he certainly has been successful in business and there's little doubt that he was the key to pulling off the Salt Lake Olympics after a scandal-ridden and disorganized beginning. And maybe he's been a conservative all along but ony played a liberal to get elected governor in Massachusetts. Or maybe he has few deep convictions. I just don't know.
Thursday, January 31, 2008
Blogging the GOP
I covered the GOP debate or panel discussion or whatever it was in Simi Valley last night, including the Giuliani endorsement of McCain, which took place in the Spin room at the Reagan Library in Simi Valley. I live-blogged it for the Register's Horserace'08 blog, so if you want to see the impressions I had while it was going on, you can go here. (You'll have to scroll down a bit, though I would note that the entries above the debate blogging, hardly any by me, are worth reading.) But after a day I do have a few overall impressions.
Let's face it, McCain has become the frontrunner, though Romney could still take it, especially if he's willing to dip further into his childrens' inheritance (he told our editorial board on a phone interview this morning that he's authorized a "seven figure" ad buy in the Feb. 5 states, but wouldn't be more specific than that). Huckabee has proved to have little appeal beyond evangelical Christians. I'm pleased as punch that Ron Paul is one of the Final Four, and I hope and believe he will stay in it through the convention, because he's saying important things that I believe will resonate and have the potential to change the country for the better beyond this election, but so far the lightning he would need hasn't struck.
Dave Boaz at Cato has written extensively about political science studies that estimate that anywhere from about 8 to 20 percent of American voters could be described as roughly libertarian if you use a fairly inclusionary definition. He also notes that under the Bush administration many of those libertarian-inclined voters have moved toward the Democrats, and even argues that libertarian-inclined voters, especially those frustrated about the war but also about civil liberties and Bush's big-government, big-spending approach, played a key role in the Democratic takeover of Congress in 2006.
That means that quite a few such voters (some of whom don't self-identify as libertarians), are fed up with the Republican Party, so even though independents have been able to vote in some GOP primaries, like New Hampshire, Ron Paul has to appeal to residual libertarian sentiment among those willing to vote as Republicans. I can't cite the exact poll, but something like 70-plus percent of self-identified Republicans still support Bush and his policies, which is why all the candidates except Dr. Paul, while not invoking Bush as a model (to put it mildly; they don't mention his name), have been reluctant to criticize him directly.
What Ron Paul has accomplished in intensity of support and fundraising, is remarkable and gives me great hope for the future of this country. But if the percentage of the electorate likely to respond to his views is 20 percent in all parties, the odds don't favor him winning many GOP primaries. I'm not yet willing to say it's impossible, but the odds are long, especially when the dominant media of almost every stripe treat him as marginal or ignore him (that's improving, but consider how few questions he or Huckabee got now that the pundits are focusing on two frontrunners; I didn't think it was fair, but I can see the rationale).
I thought Romney would have to do something dramatic to overcome McCain's perceived status as frontrunner. I think he tried, and did well in dealing with the obvious McCain misrepresentation on a timetable for troop withdrawal -- sad to say, he's almost as bellicose as McCain. But I don't think he did enough. It's possible to overstate the importance of the debates since they're not all that widely watched, but those who pay some attention can get impressions, even from inadequate news stories. I thought I saw McCain visibly control himself to make sure his famous temper didn't spill over on national television, but he did control himself and landed a few blows of his own. I'm afraid he's looking inevitable -- though it's worth remembering that Hillary was seen as even more inevitable not so long ago.
Let's face it, McCain has become the frontrunner, though Romney could still take it, especially if he's willing to dip further into his childrens' inheritance (he told our editorial board on a phone interview this morning that he's authorized a "seven figure" ad buy in the Feb. 5 states, but wouldn't be more specific than that). Huckabee has proved to have little appeal beyond evangelical Christians. I'm pleased as punch that Ron Paul is one of the Final Four, and I hope and believe he will stay in it through the convention, because he's saying important things that I believe will resonate and have the potential to change the country for the better beyond this election, but so far the lightning he would need hasn't struck.
Dave Boaz at Cato has written extensively about political science studies that estimate that anywhere from about 8 to 20 percent of American voters could be described as roughly libertarian if you use a fairly inclusionary definition. He also notes that under the Bush administration many of those libertarian-inclined voters have moved toward the Democrats, and even argues that libertarian-inclined voters, especially those frustrated about the war but also about civil liberties and Bush's big-government, big-spending approach, played a key role in the Democratic takeover of Congress in 2006.
That means that quite a few such voters (some of whom don't self-identify as libertarians), are fed up with the Republican Party, so even though independents have been able to vote in some GOP primaries, like New Hampshire, Ron Paul has to appeal to residual libertarian sentiment among those willing to vote as Republicans. I can't cite the exact poll, but something like 70-plus percent of self-identified Republicans still support Bush and his policies, which is why all the candidates except Dr. Paul, while not invoking Bush as a model (to put it mildly; they don't mention his name), have been reluctant to criticize him directly.
What Ron Paul has accomplished in intensity of support and fundraising, is remarkable and gives me great hope for the future of this country. But if the percentage of the electorate likely to respond to his views is 20 percent in all parties, the odds don't favor him winning many GOP primaries. I'm not yet willing to say it's impossible, but the odds are long, especially when the dominant media of almost every stripe treat him as marginal or ignore him (that's improving, but consider how few questions he or Huckabee got now that the pundits are focusing on two frontrunners; I didn't think it was fair, but I can see the rationale).
I thought Romney would have to do something dramatic to overcome McCain's perceived status as frontrunner. I think he tried, and did well in dealing with the obvious McCain misrepresentation on a timetable for troop withdrawal -- sad to say, he's almost as bellicose as McCain. But I don't think he did enough. It's possible to overstate the importance of the debates since they're not all that widely watched, but those who pay some attention can get impressions, even from inadequate news stories. I thought I saw McCain visibly control himself to make sure his famous temper didn't spill over on national television, but he did control himself and landed a few blows of his own. I'm afraid he's looking inevitable -- though it's worth remembering that Hillary was seen as even more inevitable not so long ago.
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