A bad month for the Empire

The American Empire has had better months. In the war that was supposed to have been won to the point of virtually wrapping up a stable democracy, thanks to Bush's courageous "surge," violence has been rising. April was the most violent month in Iraq since March of 2008. Unfortunately, one response to this increase in violence will be pleas to keep U.S. military forces in Iraq a while longer, "just until things calm down again. The possibility that the very presence of U.S. troops is a contributory factor to the violence will get short shrift.

In Afghanistan, even before President Obama's "surge" is properly underway, things are deteriorating, with increased attacks in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and the Pakistani government doing its Wicked Witch of the West routine -- "I'm melting, I'm melting" -- in the face of multiple challenges including its own sclerosis.

The likely result of these two situations is the commitment of even more resources the U.S. doesn't really have -- check out the deficits and projected deficits -- to military, quasi-military or "nation-building" to enterprises likely to involve years of strenuous effort with depleted resources with outcomes that are hardly likely to be favorable. Is this the way empires end -- not with a bang but a whimper of pain from taxpayers?

Iraq situation getting more dicey

Despite President Obama's expression of optimism on his trip to Baghdad -- guess he has taken full ownership of the war now -- things are starting to crumble there. In my column this week for Antiwar.com, I note discontent and more among the Sunni Awakening forces and the lack still of a real political resolution. It may be that Iraq is not meant to have a central government that isn't ruthless and repressive. Ivan Eland's new book, "Partitioning for Peace," is looking more and more constructive. Possibly the last best hope.

Iraq getting independent

Here's a link to my most recent column for Antiwar.com, on the inconvenient (for the administration and a few warhawks) but growing apparent sense of independence of the Iraqi government. Maliki said last week, of course, that a status of forces agreement or relationship agreement to replace the UN resolution authorizing the presence of "coalition" troops should include a timetable for withdrawal of U.S. forces. It's a popular position in Iraq. The White House gulped and said this is what we wanted all along, sorta, but it was hard not to detect a sense of panic. Talk about mixed feelings! McCain isn't the only one in the U.S. establishment who sees troops in Iraq as a more-or-less-permanent phenomenon.

What I missed getting in was this piece from Juan Cole's blog suggesting that what's driving the Iraqis is the desire to get rid of Blackwater and other private contractors. Remember the massacre last September, and the Iraqi demand that Blackwater be kicked out of the country? They're still there. I suspect Blackwater is an important part of Iraq's demand, but I think there's a great deal more to it.

No strategy in Iraq

President Bush's speech last week confirmed that the administration has no strategy except to hang on and pray things don't get worse before he has to hand off the mess to the next president. Bush is arrantly irresponsible with the lives and fortunes of Americans on a simply breathtaking scale.

Why Iraq could blow

Here's a piece by Patrick Cockburn, the conservative Cockburn who was an opponent of the Iraq invasion from the beginning and has spent considerable time reporting from Iraq for various British newspapers. He notes that while things are better in Baghdad compared to the really violent period in 2006. Iraqi Prime Minister Maliki, for example, visited an ice cream parlor recently to show how safe the neighborhood is. But before he made the little visit, a horde of soldiers, including colonels and generals, swept the neighnorhood and checked all the shops within proximity.

Thanks to the U.S. and its subsidies, the Sunnit now have armed, trained and "blooded" militias, to match those of the Shia and the Kurds. One may certainly hope the place stabilizes, but it's a long way from being a certainty. John McCain had better hope his prayers work.

Ironies in Turkey

Here's the Register's editorial on the end of the Turkish military boots-on-the-ground incursion into northern Iraq. Its's good that it was ended, but there are rich ironies, including having the power occupying Iraq and thereby thinning Iraqi sovereignty calling on Turkey to respect that pseudo-sovereignty.