Health bill still not a done deal

Events of the past few days have made it seem as if passage of the bulk of some version (no doubt hammered out in a conference committee) of ObamaCare will be passed by early next year at the latest. Joe Lieberman's concerns about a "public option" and expansion of Medicare to certain 55-year-olds has been handled -- they're out of the Senate version.

However, I talked to Mike Cannon at Cato today, and he emphasized that it is still not quite a done deal. News stories have mentioned that Nebraska Sen. Ben Nelson still has concerns about abortion. If he gets what he wants abortion activists will believe they have lost -- they went apoplectic over the Stupak amendment in the House, and if there's anything ideologues are more passionate about than health care, it's abortion. In addition, there are a number of hidden potential deal-breakers lurking, and stuff senators haven't heard about yet, in part because the dealing is still going on.

Tomorrow's Register editorial details a good deal of what's wrong with what's left in the bill(s). Short version: an individual mandate essentially gives government control over almost every aspect of health care delivery.

PelosiCare could lead to fewer insured

Here's the editorial the Register ran after the House passed PelosiCare last Saturday. It focuses on the likely perverse effects of an individual mandate enforced by a modest fine combined with a mandate that people with preexisting conditions be accepted without a financial penalty. Significant numbers of healthy people would choose to pay the fine and not get health insurance until they came down with something or developed a condition likely to require pricey treatment. The pool would be mostly high-risk patients so premiums would have to rise.

Other shortcomings of the bill, likely to be treated in more detail later include a virtual band on Health Savings Accounts, a hefty tax increase on capital gains, and a thoroughly phony approach to "tort reform" likely to empower trial lawyers even more. Not to mention the new flap over abortion. Whee! I'm pretty sure this version doesn't pass and there's a chance (though slim I think) that nothing will pass.

Gridlock is our friend.

Obama coming back to earth

If I do say so, I think this Register editorial sums up where the Obama administration is at this point fairly well. From Obama's perspective there have certainly been success -- if you consider getting a stimulus package that isn't really stimulating a success, which I presume he does. Guantanamo, as we predicted early on, is turning out to be more complicated than expected. Pelosi and Co. really had to knock heads to get cap-n-trade through the House and prospects are less than sure in the Senate. Whether he'll get some kind of health-care deform -- my prediction is a bit of tinkering around the edges -- no "public option," maybe not even co-ops, probably no universal mandate -- before the end of the year so he can call it a victory, depends to a great extent on what congresscritters, especially the Blue Dogs, hear from home during the recess. They may come back stoked to do the Obama-led transformation or more inclined to resist. I'm guessing more inclined to resist but things will take a while to shake out.

Health care deform stalled, thank goodness

I'm hardly crying in my (more interesting than Obama's) beer that the Obama-Democratic-congress effort to further nationalize health care in this country is stalled. As this Register editorial explains, the more people learned about what various bills had in mind, the less eager many Americans are to see the politicians and bureaucrats do a makeover -- at least a quick and comprehensive one.

This earlier Register editorial had some suggestions for constructive reform, including allowing more Health Savings Accounts. Tort reform to reduce the cost of medical malpractice suits that contribute to the practice of defensive medicine would also be helpful. In case you're interested, here's a link to the entire 1018-page bill the House Energy and Commerce Committee, after much huffing and puffing, passed on Friday. Most congresscritters probably won't read it, I suspect.