Monday, November 27, 2006

What hurricane season?

Pardon me if I indulge in a little shadenfreude when the experts are wrong-wrong-wrong. But do you remember all the experts early this summer who predicted this would be one of the most devastating and destructive hurricane seasons on record? And those who tied more intense hurricanes to global warming?

Well, they were wrong, weren't they? Instead of being one of the most destructive hurricane seasons on record it has turned out to be one of the mildest.

I'm fascinated at those who are so eager to tie something like hurricanes -- which so far as I know have a strong cyclical pattern that undoubtedly overpowers whatever modest contribution global warming might make -- to global warming. I'm a modest skeptic on global warming being stronger this time around than longer warming and cooling cycles we have seen throughout history. But maybe it's so. But to jump in and tie it to severe hurricanes -- something that's easily falsifiable and in this case clearly falsified -- is almost astonishing. Sure, they can count on most of the media not to point out just how wrong they were, but do they think nobody will notice?

It only confirms that most of those most concerned about global warming -- though they might turn out to be right -- have only a tenuous hold on even the most elementary of scientific concepts.

No comments: