Here's an interesting piece in today's Wall Street Journal that may be helpful in trying to dope out what it all means a few minutes ahead of the professional pundits. It's an hour-by-hour guide to when polls close in various states from by old acquaintance John Fund -- I had dinner with him last time I was in NYC but that was about six years ago.
He has Indiana and Kentucky closing at 6:00 EST (my recent check says 7:00). If the Republicans are losing the 2nd (Chocola), 8th (Hostetler, probably already lost) and 9th (Sodrel) in Indiana it could be a long night for the GOP. If Republicans lose the 3rd (Northrup) and 4th (Davis) in Kentucky, start roling the term "Speaker Pelosi" around on your tongue.
The three seats in Connecticut where Republicans are vulnerable are also key. And check Florida 22. Virginia closes at 7:00 so that should give us a preliminary idea of how the Allen-Webb contest is going and (maybe) how the struggle to control the Senate will play out.
I talked to Ted Carpenter, Cato's foreign-affairs guy this morning, and we got onto the topic of the election. He lays no claim to being a U.S. election specialist, but he expects the Democrats to gain 35 House seats because of discontent over the Iraq war. I'm not quite so bold.