Health care? Expect more taxes

As Matt Bai's article in the NYT Magazine explains in perhaps too much detail, the Obama administration has moved shrewdly in pursuit of getting something that can be called health care reform through Congress, nurturing relationships in Congress to an extent Bush and Clinton never approached. But the sticking point just might be new taxes. As this Register editorial points out, Obama is actively flirting with two notions: making health benefits taxable to employees and putting a cap in deductions the "wealthy" can claim, to raise at least some of the money that will be needed.

The notion that deepening government involvement will lead to saving money, as the administration and its lackeys keep trying to make us believe (and maybe to convince themselves) is chimerical. But they seem determined and savvy, and resistanbce is less at this point than in 1993. I think Mike Cannon at Cato is doing some of the best work being done on health care issues, including this paper just released delineating the failures of the Massachusettsmodel, and a steady rain of articles and blog posts. If reasoned argument cold do it more nationalized health care would be dead in the water. I suspect if the administration falters, however, it will be due to divisions in the Democratic party rather than reasoned argument.

How Asians love classical music

This WaPo story about the National Symphony Orchestra starting on an Asian tour to celebrate the 30th year of diplomatic relations with China reinforces the point I made in an earlier post about Asians possibly being the future of classical music. It reminds us that the first American orchestra played in China only in 1973. Now there are 30-50 million Chinese people studying piano (o fcourse the NBA broadcast tonight claimed 300 million Chinese play basketball). New concert halls and opera houses are being built throughout the country. A single factory near Beijing turns out between a fifth and a third of the violins made in the world each year.

Here's a review of the NSO's first concert on the tour, in Macau.

Of course classical music in both countries is a symbol of wealth. If the current recession gets worse -- and considering the hair-of-the-dog approach the administration has taken that seems likely-- it will be interesting to see if classical music suffers seriously or has the resiliency to make it through hard times.

So near and yet . . .

Kobe missing free throws and turning the ball over in crunch time? Give Orlando all the credit for an amazing shooting night (62.5%!!) and just maybe for being a little more desperate and focused at the end. But after trailing pretty much the entire game, with Orlando looking as if it might pull away several times, the Lakers stayed gritty and determined and made it a one-possession game. The fact that they really didn't let up at all this game -- maybe the defense was a little less tight than in the first two games, but it really came down to Orlando making shots they were missing in the first two games -- leads me to believe it won't go much past five games. Maybe six. But unless the Lakers have the kind of stinker game they had in the early series, they should win the rest. WEell. maybe Orlando will take one more but . . .

The economics of piracy

For the Register's Sunday Commentary section yesterday I reviewed Peter Leeson's fascinating new book, "The Invisible Hook: The Hidden Economics of Pirates." The George Mason econ prof uses economic analysis to explain why most pirate crews were democratically run, with the crew able to install a new captain at any time (except in the middle of a fight, of course), why the loot was divided evenly among the crew, why pirates flew the skull and crossbones, and other aspects of pirate life. A worthwhile read that will sneak a little economics lesson in almost painlessly.

Since reviewing books is a small part of the writing I do, I seldom review books in order to pan them. I enjoy reading reviews that are pans and have decided on the basis of some that I'd just as soon no spend my time on that particular book, so they serve a purpose (though I have decided the same thing on the basis of raves too). If I did a book review every day or even every week I would probably slip in a few I hated to warn readers away from them, and to have a little fun. But since I do fewer -- maybe 15-20 reviews a year -- I prefer to use that opportunity to introduce readers to books I think are genuinely worthwhile. So it's not that I'm uncritical, or that I don't read books that don't especially impress me. I just usually don't write about them.

Obama's Cairo speech redux

Obama's speech in Cairo was nowhere near so remarkable as many commentators want to insist, nor was it the dreary exercise in defeatism that many Americans who somehow get their kicks from cultivating enemies and talking tough about them considered it. Here's the Register's editorial. We suggested that the speech might have an impact on elections in Lebanon and Iran this month, and sure enough, the coalition the U.S. preferred in Lebanon got a majority, handing Hezbollah a defeat (though hardly knocking them out of the political picture). It will be interesting to watch Iran's election next week.

I'm in Facebook now

Friday we got our work done early so I finally did what various people, including newspaper consultants, have been urging me (and other scribblers) to do for some time. I joined Facebook. I know from e-mail messages that I picked up a bunch of "friends" over the weekend but I'm such a novice that I'm not sure how to get to it from this computer, nor do I know what link to put in if you're interested in seeing the page and checking on various friends. I'll know tomorrow.

Will Asians save classical music?

The results from the 13th Van Cliburn piano competition may just validate an intuition I have had for some time now. If classical music (I know the term is imprecise, but most people still have a rough idea of what it means when you use it) is to survive another generation or two, it may be Asians that save it. The top finishers in this year's Van Cliburn competition were Noboyuki Tsujii, 20, of Japan, and Haochen Jhang, 19, of China, who shared first prize, while Yeol Eum Son, 23, of South Korea won the silver medal. Finishing well in the Cliburn competition usually leads to an international career.

This is an interesting irony. Although I would make a case that what we call classical music is universal in appeal, it is (despite some signal contributions from elsewhere) quintessentially a Western European art form. But it went global long ago, and it sometimes seems as if Asians respond to it with more skill and artistry than almost anybody else (especially if you include Asian-Americans). Apparently Asian parents are more inclined to pressure children into learning to play traditional classical instruments. Among prominent virtuosi, think of Yo Yo Ma, Midori, Sarah Chang, Lang Lang, Young-Dae Park and others. I have CDs played by symphony orchestras from Shanghai, Taipei, Seoul and Singapore, and all are excellent technically and artistically.

Sotomayor more "ethnic" than advertised

I posted this at the Register's Orange Punch blog today, and thought it might be of interest here as well:

The White House has attempted to finesse Sonia Sotormayor’s 32 words about a “wise Latina woman” etc. etc. by saying she would probably have chosen different words if she had a chance at a redo. But the release by the White House of a collection of her speeches and opinions (and her 173-page completed questionnaire) suggests that this wasn’t a case of careless use of words one time, but part of a fairly standard stump speech that she used a number of times between 1994 and 2001 and beyond. John Dickinson at Slate, hardly a right-wing crazy, thinks the White House may have misfired by suggesting that Republicans didn’t complain about a similar phrase (without the “Latina”) in a 1994 speech when she was up for the 2nd Circuit job, so why are they whining now? But the fact that she seems to have had that opinion for many years and expressed it in public may be a bigger problem in the confirmation hearings.

Looking at the speeches also suggests a keen awareness on Judge Sotormayor’s part of her ethnic background and how it sometimes made her feel like a “stranger in a strange land” (beginning at Princeton in the 1980s, which wouldn’t be a surprise) even as she was rising to the top of her profession. “The Latina in me is an ember that will burn forever,” she told Hofstra students in 1996. Her awareness seems coupled with a determination to be a good role model and urge other Hispanics to apply themselves seriously to advancement.

In my view, none of this makes her a “racist” as Rush Limbaugh wants to insist, nor does it disqualify her for confirmation. Her record in discrimination cases also suggests that she wasn’t automatically sympathetic to claims of discrimination. Still, I regret (though I think I understand) the gender/ethnic tribalism in which she chose to participate.

I still think the talk-radio mob — recognizing that the medium thrives on controversy and outrage even if it has to be self-manufactured — made a big mistake by attacking her so relentlessly. She’s going to be confirmed anyway and she won’t affect the balance on the court (she might even be more conservative than Souter on some criminal-justice issues, arising from her experience as a prosecutor). While acquiescing in her inevitability, Senate Republicans could have presented themselves as thoughtful critics of her approach to judging without emphasizing her gender or ethnic background. But it’s probably too late for that now.

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Obamaglow starting to fade

The Republicans are still mostly hopeless, and considering how venal and devoid of principle most of them proved to be during the Bush regnancy, it's hard to feel the least bit of sadness. But the bllom is coming off the Obama rose, not so much because of anything the Republicans are doing but because of doubts from some Democrats. Cap-and-trade, which would be utterly disastrous, imposing huge costs for close to zero benefit even if you're a full-on true believer in anthropogenic global warming, looks as if it's going to die. Although there is still almost no organized opposition, I wouldn't give a thoroughgoing health-care plan much of a chance. The failure to have a plan for Guantanamo has seriously damaged the Obama mystique. And as this Register editorial notes, the "Employee Free Choice Act," or "card check, which would make it inordinately easier to form unions, is likely to go down in flames as well.

To be sure, Obama has taken over entire industries, in ways that do not bode well for a successful return to the private sector, and put in place an immense amount of deficit spending. But I suspect he will prove to be more disappointing thasn advertised to the hard left and less utterly disastrous than feared to the right.

Obama impressive but . . .

This Register editorial was written in advance of President Obama's speech in Cairo and I think it holds up fairly well. I don't think anybody else emphasized the importance of reducing the U.S. footprint in the Middle East anywhere near as much. I'm still processing Obama's speech in Cairo and will write tomorrow for Sunday. These blog posts, here, and here for Orange Punch have links to reactions from various people across the spectrum. My first impressions are generally positive -- he could have announced a swifter withdrawal from Iraq, but I didn't really expect anything of the sort. It partook a bit of the liberal semi-delusion that if we can just get the parties together to talk something good is bound to come of it, but not that drastically. I'm thinking we'll see whether it has an impact in the Muslim world in elections next week in Lebanon and in Iran two weeks hence.

That was almost too easy!

I know it wasn't really. Orlando missed quite a few shots on pretty open looks and can't be expected to shoot so poorly throughout the series. Dwight Howard will likely have some big games. But you have to give the Lakers' defense some credit for that. Howard is not necessarily accustomed to having two 7-footers swarming him, and that seemed to throw his rhythm off.

I was impressed from the beginning with the businesslike sense of mission the Lakers showed from the outset. Kobe was the key, of course, and took the game into his own hands in a sterling 3rd quarter. But everybody came to play and to win. I have been impressed with Stan Van Gundy during these playoffs and I think he'll be able to make some adjustments and have his team ready to be competitive Sunday. But tonight it was all Lakers.

Let's get these finals started

I'm pretty sure that a few days away from games is probably good for the Lakers, who are a bit banged up, especially Lamar Odom. But I can't wait to get these games going. Tomorrow seems like a long time from now in that respect.

I think the key will be how well Andrew Bynum can defend Dwight Howard. If he can keep him farther from the paint, make him change shots and the like, I( think the Lakers will come through pretty handily. In six. I think.

Abortion wars returning

You can generally count on the issue of abortion to bring out the worst in people. The murder of abortion doctor George Tiller certainly validated this truism. Since I had to write about it I had to learn that Tiller was something of a specialist in late-term abortions and a special target of Bill O'Reilly and some other abortion foes. So naturally some people wanted to use the crime as a way to criticize O'Reilly and others for incitement. Not that I'm any fan of O'Reilly, but lighten up, people.

Empire of adolescent fear

My column for Antiwar.com this week discusses how the Empire uses and encourages fear to make us docile and ready to accept the bogus protection the State offers. "Empire of Dread," Matt headlined it.

All hail Government Motors

As this Register editorial notes, they don't have to change the logo. GM can stand for "Government Motors" quite nicely, thank you. We also mentioned briefly what has been since teased out in more detail by others -- that the agreement will present a major trade problem, in that forcing GM to build more cars in the U.S. and preventing it from importing European models it already makes is a protectionist measure and probably in violation of WTO treaty obligations.

The administration says it just wants to nurture GM back to profitability, but as I also pointed out yesterday, decisions will inevitably be politicized in ways that undermine much hope of profitability. Ah, what wonders there are in this Brave New World.

Medical marijuana: Two steps forward . . .

One step back. Or so. I still think we are close to a tipping-point on legal marijuana, although it's likely to take years for the implications to be worked out and the modalities agreed upon. It's not surprising in such a time of flux that there would be progress and setbacks. A setback occurred this week in Iowa, where the state pharmacy board, which had been ordered by a judge to consider permitting medicinal marijuana, dispatched of the idea with scorn and ignorance in a couple of hours. Well, what did you expect. A state pharmacy board represents the interests of pharmacists and at least by indirect extension the pharmaceutical-industrial complex. Medicinal marijuana is not only a threat to that whole shady industry but represents a paradigm the people steeped in pharmacology -- which views only single-molecule doses of standardized doses as "real" medicine and herbal medicine as primitive and maybe barbaric -- can't get their minds around. Of course a pharmacy board would dismiss "the very idea" with contempt.

The court action had asked Iowa to legalize medicinal marijuana because 13 other states had done so. One board member even recalled the old chestnut everybody claims to remember about their teenage years, claiming she asked her father as a teenager about staying out late because all the other kids were allowed to and being asked, "If your friends jumped off a bridge would that mean you had to jump off a bridge?" I'll leave it to you to suss out the kind of mind that would come up with such an inapt analogy, starting with the idea that these bureaucrats view free American adults as adolescents who can be allowed to do only what our in loco parentis types (loco parents?) -- them -- allow us to do.

But the news wasn't all negative. A proposal to legalize medical marijuana squeaked through the Illinois state senate; it gos to the House next. The state senate in New Jersey has passed a medical marijuana bill and it goes before an Assembly committee Thursday, after which presumably the full Assembly can vote on it. It may seem slow but progress is being made.

Torture: not only immoral but ineffective

Here's a link to the piece I did for yesterday's Register Commentary section on torture. I relied to a great extent on a lengthy phone interview with retired Adm. Lee F. Gunn (my old fraternity brother from college whom I hadn't talked to in decades until recently), who is among the retired flag-level officers actively explaining (college appearances, etc.) why they oppose the use of torture by the U.S. He is quite articulate and passionate in his understated way. I also read the four "torture memos" the administration released recently and did a good deal of reading.

It is difficult to believe that the use of torture got anything very useful or saved lives. As this Stratfor piece explains, the only real rationale for torture (except perhaps for purposes of humiliation or punishment or sadism) is the ticking-time-bomb hypothesis everybody invokes but has never happened in real life. What the U.S. needed after 9/11 was basic information about al-Qaida, which it was sorely lacking (and the Bushies ignored the people like Michael Shcheuer who did know something), not operational stuff (which changes almost immediately in a reasonably competent organization once they know somebody with certain info has been captured). They got some with conventional interrogation techniques and would undoubtedly have gotten more if they hadn't turned to torture. Not only a moral outrage but a strategic mistake.

The bird is still hanging around

After I got home from work tonight it was still light and pleasant out, so Jen and I had a glass of wine, talked and enjoyed the evening. We discovered that the baby bird we have been watching still hangs around the nest, though we haven't seen the parents. Tonight he chirped assertively for about 10 minutes at dusk before crawling into the next and (we presume) going to sleep. We took that as a signal to come inside.

So now it's Government Motors

It's hard for me to see how the bankruptcy/government takeover of General Motors does anything but make the company progressively less viable economically. I know Obama with our-but-really-his 60% stake in the new entity says he doesn't want to micromanage GM or even run a car company. He doesn't have to; he has aides to do it on the government's behalf. Will they move toward profitability or toward what the political class thinks we ought to want in the way of cars? I'm figuring the latter.

It isn't just the big three, but the parts-makers that supply them that are hurting, and many are in the Midwest where Obama and other Democrats will want to keep noisy interest groups happy. Some in Congress will see government ownership of GM as a jobs program; others will see it as an opportunity to make sure GM makes the cutest little fuel-sipping (switchgrass of course), green and eco-friendly cars imaginable, imagining it will have an impact on climate change. Neither is the path to profitability unless gas price go through the roof again soon.

Sorry, GM. You brought it on yourself, but it's still sad. Check my prophecy in a couple of years.

Quote of the Day

"The financial crisis is not the crisis of capitalism. It is the crisis of a system that has distanced itself from the most fundamental values of capitalism, which betrayed the spirit of capitalism." -- French president Nicolas Sarkozy.