Freedom of choice to be undermined?

Here's a piece I did for the Register on the Employee Free Choice Act, or "card check," which seems to be unionized labor's major legislative priority for this year. Under the bill, if a majorioty of emplyees sign a card saying they're interested in having a union, then it's in -- not option for a secret-ballot election. A huge irony. Both unions and management say they're interested in preventing intimidation. But a secret ballot is certainly a better preventive against intimidation than a situation where union organizers can come to your home with a card and say "how 'bout it?".

Well, maybe if the unions get this one they'll be less intense about seeking protectionism during a global downturn, which just might tip it into a global depression.

Trade wars: are they here?

The World Bank announced that global trade levels are likely to decline this year for the first year in almost forever. The recession is really shaping up as a serious global problem. In that light, this piece for the Register's Sunday Commentary section discussing the possibility of emerging protectionism that could develop into trade wars, seems rather timely. The bottom line is that I don't expect protectionist overkill on the order of what followed the Smoot-Hawley tariffs of 1930 and most certainly contributed to deepening and prolonging the Great Depression. But there are opportunities for plenty of protectionist beggar-thy-neighbor (and thyself) mischief. Even within the confines of the WTO, which I regard as managed trade with a bias toward free trade rather than really free trade, opportunities for essentially protectionist activities.

I have mentioned previously how much I enjoyed talking with Jagdish Bhagwati and how much I got out of his great wisdom and knowledge regarding these issues. I hope you'll agree that I used the information he gave me fairly deftly. Tell me if I'm wrong.

Trade war coming?

It's gotten a little attention, but not enough focus, I think. One of the hidden gems in the $800-billion (or so, still subject to negotiation) "stimulus" package is a "Buy American" provision that could trigger -- or help to reinforce what some other benighted countries are doing or contemplating actively -- a trade war. The provision would require infrastucture projects to use American-made steel. It was amended slightly in the Senate so as to say explicitly that it wouldn't be interpreted in a way that would violate existing trade treaties. But it still got the trade ministers at Davos up in arms. And even with the amendment, it would seriously restrict imports from China, India, Russia, Ukraine anbd Turkey, which are not yet WTO members.

The U.S. passed the Smoot-Hawley tariff in 1930, which seriously contributed to deepening the Depression. Some countries have already restricted exports of food in response to last year's food crisis, which is partly attributable to ethanol subsidies and mandates in the U.S. and some Western European countries. Countries are always tempted by protectionism in an economic downturn, and when they succum it always makes the downturn worse. Oh, what tangled webs we weave when we restrict and try to micromanage!