Tracking Bob Barr

Almost forgot. Did a piece for this past Sunday's Register Commentary section on Libertarian Party candidate Bob Barr's prospects for at least doing better than most previous LP presidential candidates this November. His candidacy has not been the triumphant building on Ron Paul's early (relative) successes in the GOP primaries that many had hoped; in fact it precipitated something of a split in the LP and a break with Ron Paul himself. However, despite disappointing fundraising and a less-than-stellar ballot access campaign, I think he has a chance to beat the high-water mark of 1.1% that Ed Clark got in 1980, and perhaps even to help build the freedom movement a bit.

I talked to Dave Nolan today, which I hadn't done in a couple of years, and he was more mellow toward Barr than I expected. He agrees with me that Barr has sincerely become a soft-core libertarian; his turnaround on the drug war is notable and remarkable. He thinks Barr's real goal may be a constant slot as a talking head on the cable news channels, which wouldn't be an entirely unpleasant outcome.

Split decision on Bob Barr

I'm still not sure what to think about the Libertarian Party's nomination of Bob Barr as president. I talked to a long-time (and I mean long-time) libertarian activist last week who on balance was rather dismayed. He doesn't think Barr is close to being a shure-nuff libertarian, though he might get there eventually, pointing out that while in an LP speech last week hge talked about rescinding the Patriot Act, in a media interview he talked about seeing which parts should be retained and which should be repealed, shading the issue. He also doesn't think he's fully persuaded about the immorality of the drug war, though he's come some distance on medical marijuana. He says the Ron Paul people don't much like Barr, so there's little chance of organizing/fundraising help from that corner. And he thinks Wayne Allyn Root, who tossed his support to Barr and got the vice presidential nomination, is an opportunist and the LP will be lucky if he isn't in jail before the end of the year (among other things he's an online gambling entrepreneur).

The factor that might militate most strongly against the LP getting an unusually good, even game-changing performance this year by nominating someone who already had a political "name" is that this is likely to be a close election. Even if they understand the Electoral College and the fact that in many states the race isn't all that close and a third-party vote won't defeat their second choice, voters tend to shun third parties when the election is close nationally. All too many people buy into the "your vote counts" mystique.

Can Bob Barr make the LP relevant?

Nominating former Republican Rep. Bob Barr, whose conversion to libertarianism is still of recent vintage and not quite complete, was an interesting move for the Libertarian Party, and one that could have some good outcomes. But it's not easy to say how it will pan out. As I had predicted, it wasn't surefire that Barr would get the nomination; it apparently came when Wayne Allyn Root, who got the vice-presidential nod in what may have been a deal (I don't know yet), threw his support to Barr. At that, he only got a 54 percent margin. The move has been internally divisive within the LP. Even if that gets patched up, there's no guarantee Barr can exploit the nomination effectively.

Some aspects of the convention suggest that he might be able to. This was the most newsworthy LP convention I can remember, largely because "convert" Barr (and former Alaska Dem. Sen. Mike Gravel, whom I met at a conference and liked quite well; he has some libertarian instincts in my view, but is hardly consistent, though a good guy) declared for the nomination. The shot at relevance, of course, is the possibility that Barr could serve as a spoiler by running well enough in a few battleground states to throw the election one way or another, most likely (though not inevitably) against McCain.

To me, the best source of ongoing info about the convention was Dave Weigel's (of Reason) on-the-scene blogging, but other bloggers reported and the convention did get time on C-SPAN and CNN, and much more coverage (and generally less focused on libertarian oddballs, who do exist) than usual.

Of course, I'd like to think Barr's turnaound on the drug war was sealed when I presented him a copy of my book, "Waiting to Inhale: The Politics of Medical Marijuana," at an event in Los Angeles where he and Grover Norquist were prime speakers in a day-long conference critical of the Patriot Act (for which Barr had voted when he was in congress, a secular sin for which he has repented copiously). Truth to tell, however, I don't know if he even read it. Ah, well!

Weigel at LP Convention

Here's a link to Reason's Hit&Run blog, where Dave Weigel is posting from the Libertarian Party convention in Denver. This is the most interesting LP event in years, for a couple of reasons. Former Republican Rep. Bob Barr (GA) and Democratic Sen. Mike Gravel (AK) have declared that they're libertarians now and are running for the presidential nomination, in a year in which a considerable LP vote in a few key states might -- just might -- swing the election one way or another, most likely against McCain. In addition to the new converts, LP veterans like Wayne Allyn Root, Mary Ruwart, and Steve Kubby are also in the presidential race.

I don't have a horse in this race, though Steve Kubby is an old friend and Mary Ruwart a long-time acquaintance. I met George Phillies in New Hampshire. As Dave Weigel notes, Bob Barr has to convince LPers that he has come over convincingly, from a conservative record, on issues like the drug war, gay marriage, and Mike Gravel that he isn't still for socialized health care.

So far I don't have a sense of how it's likely to turn out.