Iraq: fragile progress

Here's a link to the Register's editorial on the U.S. turning over security control of Anbar Province to the Iraqi government. While speakers at the Republican convention were exulting that we are on the verge of victory thanks to the "surge," we made clear that things are a bit more complicated than that. Not only did the Anbar Awakening precede the surge by several months, there's a pretty serious danger, as noted previously, that the Shia-dominated Iraqi government just might mess the whole thing up. It's got a bunch oif Awakening leaders on a to-be-arrested list and has taken hardly any of the Awakening fighters (who are Sunni) into the government security forces.

Interestingly, as this article makes clear, Gen. Petraeus, hailed as the genius behind the turnaround, is much more circumspect about claiming that victory is around the corner. And even if the U.S. does find a reasonably graceful way out, that doesn't mean the war was worth starting, if only because the most significant result is to have made Iran stronger as a regional power and given it m0ore incentive to acquire nukes.

Danger in Iraq

It was reported last week, but I don't think quite enough attention has been paid to a situation that could backfire rather handily in Iraq. Remember the Anbar Awakening, which in my view probably did more than the surge to contribute the the reduced violence in Iraq? Well, the Shia-dominated Iraqi government is not only dragging its feet on bringing those American-supported ($300 a month) fighters into the national security services, it has issued arrest warrants for 650 of the leaders. Hard to know where this will lead, but something like a resumption of civil war is certainly not beyond the realm of possibility. Here's the Register's editorial on the potential dangers. I also devoted my Antiwar.com column this week to the problem.